10 Year NFL Team

Lets say you are tasked with winning every single one of the next 10 Superbowls, what 24 man roster (11 offense, 11 defense, K & P, no backups for this scenario) do you select?

RULES:

1 - Your team can be made up of any 24 people in the world. If you think Kevin Durant is the best option for TE, then so be it.

2 - Money is clearly no object.

3 - Injuries and age are a factor. Take Tom Brady if you want, if you think he can win when he is 44 years old. Or take Matthew Stafford if you think he can stay healthy for 10 straight years. There is no free agent pick up if someone gets hurt.

4 - You lose, you die.

Obviously there is no way to predict this, but the thought behind rule 4 is to take it seriously and make real decisions that don't include just your favorite team.

For this scenario I will use a 3WR, 1 TE, 1 HB offense and a 4-3 defense. I will also give a brief explanation of each pick.

OFFENSE:

QB - Aaron Rodgers: He will be 38 at the end of the 10th year, and he has had a little problem with injuries in the past, but with this, I will have an elite offensive line, so I hope to eliminate any injury chance. Other choices would be Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Sam Bradford.

HB - LeSean McCoy: The complete idea here is he has proved the most at the youngest age with no injury history. He is 3 years younger than Peterson & Chris Johnson, and 2 years younger than Ray Rice. With RBs hitting a "wall" at age 30ish, younger is better.

TE - Jermichael Finley: He is young, and very athletic, and can matchup against anyone on defense. Only other consideration was Vernon Davis.

WR - Calvin Johnson Jr.: Quite simple. I have him as the best WR in the league, and even at age 36 in 10 years, I still think he will be a top 10 WR at that point.

WR - A.J. Green: Did you see this guy play this year? Just an absolute beast that if you matched up with another #1 reciever on his team, he would be that much better.

WR - Mike Wallace: He will be 35 in 10 years, so it makes sense his greatest attribute, his speed, won't be what it is now. But even then, he would be beyond the fastest #3 WR in the league.

LT - Joe Thomas: He will be 37 at the end of the 10 years, so not an ideal choice, but he has been the best LT in the league since he arrived, and hasn't missed a single snap since day 1. You bet against him, cause I wont.

LG - Mike Iupati: He is a strong interior lineman, and will provide some youth on this O-line, being just 34 at the end of the 10 years.

C - Maurkice Pouncey: He has already established himself in this league as one of the top centers to come, and at just 22 years of age, he will be the top lineman on this team for the next 10 years.

RG - Ryan Clady: Originally a tackle, I would move him to right guard for this scenario. He has developed into one of the top tackles in the game, and with right guard being a hard position to fill, he would fit good enough, and even if he was only 80% of what he is at tackle, it would be plenty.

RT - Tyron Smith: Quite possibly the best RT in the game, and he only has 16 starts. Oh, and he is just 21 years old. He would be a brute force for the next 10 years on this line.

DEFENSE:

DE - Jason Pierre-Paul: As an Eagles fan whose team drafted Brandon Graham ahead of JPP, it frustrates me to see him be so good, but at the end of the day, for the next 10 years, I think he is the top DE in the game.

DT - B.J. Raji: This is my safe pick, in terms of, he is a great defensive tackle, but not the best. But for his age, his injury history, and his track record, I feel confident playing him for 10 years and not having to worry about not having him for a game.

DT - Haloti Ngata: This is a very tough pick, because of his age. He will be 38 at the end of 10 seasons. I'm not sure how effective he will be 10 years from now, but I went with him instead of Ndamukong Suh is because if my life depended on it, I don't think Suh plays every game for the next 10 years because of his attitude.

DE - Von Miller: He plays OLB for the Broncos, but he is the type of player who can be a OLB/DE hybrid, so I am playing him at DE, where all he has to focus on is getting to the QB.

OLB - Brian Cushing: He played OLB his first season before moving to ILB when Wade Phillips brought the 3-4 defense to the team. He only had one of the best rookie performances that year, and with age being a premium at the LB position, being only 25 helps a lot.

MLB - Patrick Willis: This is probably the easiest pick for this entire team. The only downside is he will be 37 at the end of the 10 year period, although Ray Lewis is coming back at the age of 37, and he is still one of the top LBs in the game, so no real problem with this pick.

OLB - Clay Matthews: I almost left him off this list because he is a 3-4 OLB, but just his pure athletic ability made me put him back on. In a perfect world he is blitzing every play, but even on this defense, I just couldn't leave him off.

CB - Darrelle Revis: His age would concern me a lot by the end of the 10 year period, but his work ethic and desire to be the top CB in the game eases that thought.

SS - Eric Berry: When you factor in age and ability into a pick, Berry has to be the top SS in the game.

FS - Earl Thomas: Haven't really seen him play in a game, but watching highlights shows me all I need to know.

CB - Patrick Peterson: He is young, extremely fast, and his special teams contributions gave the Cardinals a few extra wins, and that is all I would need from him.

K - Alex henery: This may look like a homer pick, but before you judge, know that he has the range to kick almost a 60 yarder, and set the rookie accuracy record.

P - Brett Kern: Not much into a punter selection here, major thing is make sure he isn't an old man at the end of the 10 year period. And with the need to win the next 10 Superbowls, hopefully punting isn't going to be something my team does a lot.

Feel free to comment on players you would have chosen over one of my current players.

Shark Tank Season 3 "Week 8"

I really hate that Barbara is back for however many more episodes. If seems like she doesn't do a lot of deals or try to negotiate that much. Lori seemed much more active in the ideas.


1st Idea: The Original Profender; $75k for 15%

Seems like a decent idea. With an offer they could remake it into something that is a little more realistic in terms of what someone would see on the basketball court. The huge thing here is that it costs $500 per each profender. That seems outragous. Like Mark says, NBA teams, and top colleges could afford that price easily, but for a local gym, small time schools, small high schools, it would be almost impossible for them to afford it, even a $200 retail version. And since it is all about making money, everyone goes out.

I am surprised Mark didn't try to do something with it. I do wish they had revealed the profit margin on each one, but they didn't, so I can only assume a $300ish profit, and I believe if Mark had decided to go in on it, with a little makeover they could have sold millions.

Outcome: NO DEAL



2nd Idea: Nardo's Natural; $75k for 12%

I'm not into personal skin care products myself, and like Kevin says there are thousands of people out there with a product like this. I don't even really know what to say about this to be honest lol.

Barbara of all people is the only one that makes an offer, although I think if they had a few more sales Robert would have been in there also. In the end they take Barbara's deal, which is a good thing because they need someone that can help and guide them past where they are now.

Outcome: DEAL



Recap: Pork Barrel BBQ

It's been so long since this episode, I honestly don't even remember what I first thought about this idea. What a horrible recap haha.



3rd Idea: Rent-A-Grandma; $150 for 20%

Just from the name alone seems like a horrible idea.

I don't know why people would hire a random lady that they don't know for a higher cost versus someone you know that can do it for half the price to babysit. I guess in theory it is an easy way to make money, outside of the initial contact you rarely have any work after that, but seems tough to generate customers with an idea like this.

Outcome: NO DEAL



4th Idea: LITTER; $80k for 51%

They want to give up over half of their company. Should at least get all of the sharks attention if nothing else.

Wow. A very accurate company valuation, much better than possibly anyone else that has ever been on the show. At first I thought this was going to be a pitch, but a couple of minutes in it appeared as though everyone wanted a piece of this. There was one view where it looked like Daymond was going to jump all over this.

With a product like this, Daymond is the best guy to go into business with. Plus, my thoughts are the first person to give you an offer is probably the person that is most interested in the product. Near the end it looked like Barbara wanted to make a better offer, but who really knows what that offer would have been, plus if she really wanted to do a deal why didn't she offer up something before Daymond.

With jewelry having such a high markup, I wouldn't be surprised to see them run with this deal and easily cross one million in sales the following year.

Outcome: DEAL



End of Episode Recap: The Profender seemed like a decent idea, but way to high of a price to sell. The skin care product is probably going to have a hard time to hit major sales. Rent-A-Grandma still seems like a stupid idea and company. The LITTER has a bad name, but I do like that leg piece the girls were wearing in the episode; as I said, I could easily see that business going far.

Shark Tank Season 3 "Week 7"

1st Idea: Kisstixx; $200k for 20%

Their company valuation isn't as crazy as I first thought, but only becuase of the potential Walgreens order. These two guys seem like great guys to have running a business. They have a product, have sold over 25k units, have ideas for where they would like to take their concept, and outside of Barbara who never invests in anything, seem to have sparked interest from other sharks (not counting Kevin who will be out unless he thinks he can make 10+ million).

Well technically Mark is the only one that offers a contract, but Daymond and Robert both said they would have made an offer, just not as good as that.

Outcome: DEAL


Update: Daisy Cakes

I vaguely remember this idea, lady makes cakes at home and ships them to anywhere across the U.S. From what I remember she did pretty good before, not great but not a pushover in terms of sales, and now it appears she is hitting it big time with over a million in sales a year. Although I still doubt I would order a cake from the other side of the U.S. and get it shipped to my house.


2nd Idea: The Smart Baker; $75k for 25%

First off if they have any sales this valuation is way more accurate than 90% of the products/ideas on this show.

So the valuation isn't as good as I thought but they have great margins on sales. I don't really like the apron idea, if you bake for a living you should know off the top of your head how many teaspoons are in a tablespoon. I do like the cooking sheets though with the side handles, that seems like a good product, just not able to sell that for a lot.

As Kevin points out, even with great margins its tough to make a lot of money with products like this, it is more of a hobby than a business.

Haha I love Robert in this part, eating a cupcake while drama happens between Daymond and Barbara. As they leave Daymond says he would have ended up licensing the products. Myself personally I love the license route and if I was in that same situation and I took Barbara's deal I would have later been mad to know Daymond wanted to license it. He probably should have said something about that.

Outcome: DEAL


3rd Idea: Heat Helper; $100k for 50%

A much lower valuation than most people, but this is probably the only guy that has come in initially seeking a straight up partner, 50/50. But this guy seems crazy haha. Good idea though.

I feel bad for the guy though, but like everyone says, it's hard to invest in someone that isn't 100% committed to their idea. But my personal opinion is, if you have a successful business, and you come out with an idea like this, and it isn't blowing up, but you are still selling some, leave it at that. He probably puts 1 hour a week into this idea and can make some money on the side. Sometimes thats all a product is.

Outcome: NO DEAL


4th Idea: TEC; $500k for 15%

Extreme valuation. I doubt he has 100k in sales.

I like the licensing idea. Easiest way to do nothing and make money. Although apparantly he has a nice clothing business that makes millions, but he doesn't want to offer any equity in that company. At first glance I figured that would blow this offer up, but it appears the guy is willing to negotiate. The best part of this idea and patent is you can prevent any other major clothing brand from running wires in clothes.

Like Daymond, I always wonder why people that are making millions in profit come on this show. This guy seems very arrogant. The only reason I think Kevin and Robert are trying to get a deal because of the money potential, while Mark and Daymond don't want to invest because of the moral issues.

Ugh this guy has major issues. Pretty sure he didn't go on the show to get a deal, just some free publicity and the ability to brag about the connections he has.

Outcome: NO DEAL



At the end of the episode, there were a lot of good negotiations, some decent ideas, but for myself I didn't see anything really attractive. Outside of the last guy who actually has a business, everyone else has an idea with small potential. Although small potential is all it takes to turn $1,000 into $1,000,000.

Shark Tank Season 3 "Week 6"

Gonna switch up how I "review" the episode haha. Last time I felt like it was more of a recap and I don't want to go into the "recap" business.

1st Idea: Five-Minute Furniture; $250k for 25%

This guy is dressed for success. Company valuation is at 1 million. Seems high. Seems like a very good idea. I have seen something like this before, but not sure what it was on. This would have come in handy for myself a few months ago. The price on these probably have to be high though.

NO SALES! Ugh. Knew it was to good to be true. Apparently has a main company that comes up with ideas, has approx. 80 products, has gotten a total of 1 million in investments, and says he hasn't been able to pay back the other investers any money from their initial investment.

I like Kevin and Lori's offer from an investor standpoint, but from the other side of the table, I wouldn't sell this patent for $250k. It's getting even money back but the sharks would make any money from the product. If I was in this situation I wouldn't mind selling the entire product patent but would want some type of royalty, like 3%. My commercial break prediction is he doesn't do the deal unless there is a royalty.

Outcome: NO DEAL


Update: The Man Candle

Nothing really to say here. A candle that is to attract the male audience, but I doubt there are any flavors that would make me want to go out and buy a candle. But he is apparenlty doing pretty good, so good for him. That is the best part of this show, even without a deal the free advetising you get from the show can help even the worst people.


2nd Idea: The Painted Pretzel; $100k for 25%

The beginning back story reaction, "ooo, pretzels! (sarcasm)."

Valuation of company is at $400k. From the beginning story seems like a somewhat accurate valuation. And just like that they have like $75k in sales from the past 12 months. So another overvaluation. But there appears to be potential here at least with back orders.

Kevin's analysis on these people's companies and ideas are almost always spot on. And he makes the show what it is. I love it when he talks haha. He is right though, for $400k he can go anywhere and get someone to make fancy pretzels, and for a lot cheaper. Not a lot of drama in this segment, Mark offers exactly what she wants, and she takes it. Huge opportunity for her to work with Mark. They can increase sales over 100% just from selling them at some of the companies he owns (Mavs, Landmark Theaters).

Outcome: DEAL


3rd Idea: Esso Watches; $35k for 20%

$175k company valuation, seems high for a beginner watch company.

UGH, these ideas are stupid. Mark right away notices the scam just as I did. These commercials are stupid. Daymond notices that two of his watch designs have been copied from someone he knows. I kinda feel bad for him though. Maybe all the other scams have a guy like this that came up with the idea, but this seemed like a guy that tried his best to come up with a business, but ended up settling for a whack watch. He does seem very knowledgable with search engines though, zero cost on advertising is good for any business.

BUT with that said, it's all about making money, and he has sold $120k and made $70k in profit, so I am surprised Kevin didn't do something like $10-15k for 20% and basically just sit back and make money.

Outcome: NO DEAL


4th Idea: Readerest; $150 for 15%

Another overvaluation, woo hoo.

As someone who wears glasses 100% of the time, I have never had a problem losing my glasses or dropping them or anything like that. But it is possible that people with sunglasses or reading glasses who aren't entirely depentant on glasses may be a little more careless and this is a problem for them. I do like the look of glasses like that hanging on his shirt, seems somewhat stylish.

Even with the extreme overvaluation of the company, I'm surprised more sharks aren't in on this product. With the current commercial break, it leaves with Mark on the verge of making an offer that I think this guy will accept without even knowing the offer. He held out against Lori because he wanted to hear Mark's offer, and I don't think Mark is gonna lowball him. Commercial prediction will be a deal with Mark!

My predictions suck haha. Mark goes out. He accepts the deal with Lori, as he should have with everyone else out.

Outcome: DEAL



Out of all the deals the furniture deal looks the best. That is something that everyone could use and would make it easier for everyone that ever puts furniture together. Everything else is a niche market or a scam. Of course with Lori's connections with QVC I am sure the glasses holder will make a lot more money than these other 3 ideas combined.

Shark Tank Season 3 Week 5

For those that don't know, Shark Tank is a reality TV show that features 5 wealthy entrepreneurs who are considered "the sharks", and they listen to product and company ideas from the everyday person who have think they have the next great idea. Basically it's poor or inexperienced entrepreneurs (everyday people) who are looking for an investment and knowledge from "the sharks". Since I don't really watch reality TV I guess you can say this if my favorite reality show. And because it talks a lot about something I care about, running your own business and of course MONEY, I figured I'd start a weekly blog to talk about each product/business on the show.

If you have never seen the show before it comes on Friday nights at 7 o'clock (I think) on ABC. I'm not going to go into great detail about the sharks, but I have said this and until I see otherwise I will always say this, if you go on this show and you want to make major money, team up with Kevin O'Leary or Robert Herjavec. If you want to make money and have a good time doing it, team up with Mark Cuban or Daymond John.

Anyway, there are obvious spoilers on here so if you watch the show but haven't seen this episode yet, come back and read later or go to hulu, I am pretty sure the episodes are on there.



1st Idea: The Last Lid; seeking $40k for 20%

First off, I've never used a trash can like that. The ones I have been around are the rolling type with a lid attached, so this is clearly a very biased opinion from me, but I think it is a stupid idea. Maybe one day I'll end up using a trash can like this, but until I do, I would never think about buying that. Now maybe there is a market for this, and if that is the case, then they are gonna need some better designs if they want to sell this product seriously.

The first MAJOR kicker here is that they have ZERO sales. Most people on the show always overestimate their product/business by a huge amount. Like Daymond says, seeking $40k for 20% means you are valuing your company at $200k.....with ZERO sales. Assuming they have put like one or two thousand dollars into this product, if they wanted to stick with $40k for 20% they should have offered some kind of royalty to the investor to get his investment back. Basically they have an idea and want you to give them a large sum of money for a tiny part of their company, so you take all the risk. No investor would do this, and that is why you see them dropping like flies on this offer. Kevin also brings out a huge problem, they are only making 42% profit on each lid sold, and that number should be much closer to 200%-300%

But Daymond drops a huge bomb, and basically says you have one chance to adjust your offer and if it is good enough he'll accept. These two people go into this by crazy overvaluing their company, and at the end change their offer to $40k for 60%. This is still an overvaluation, but it shows that they realized they overvalued their company and are now willing to give control to someone else for the same price. I was surprised to see Daymond accept the offer, that is until he revealed he himself tried to buy just a lid a month back and couldn't find one anywhere.

End Result: DEAL


Update: Powerdecal

When I saw this update I got crazy excited. When I first saw this idea I was going crazy at how low the light was being sold for, thinking it could easily go for $50-$80 and knowing I would pay that much for it. It is currently being sold for $25. I see that they are put into Best Buy, and to my surprise a while back looking in a sports shop, they had this product and I didn't even recognize it from the show (new name, previous name was like lifelight or something like that). Anyway, they have all major sports licenses and after checking their website I can say I will be buying this one day in the future.



2nd Idea: Ledge Pillow; seeking $30k for 25%

Good News! She has sales! She has sold all of 83 of these big boys. IN 3 YEARS! That is not even 1 a week. In terms of the product, I'm sure women with large breasts do have a problem sleeping on their stomach because of their big boobs. But this is assuming that they want to sleep with pressure on their stomach, which I am sure is as much of a pain as pressure on their boobs. Maybe the occasional person would want to buy this, but like everyone pointed out on the show, it is a very small market that she is targeting, and with a low price point, there isn't a lot of money in this product and would be more of a side thing she should do to make a couple extra bucks, not something she should spend hundreds of thousands of dollars trying to make the next big thing.

They also point out her lack of wanting to succeed, having only sold 83 in three years basically shows you don't care about this enough to do it full time, so why should they invest in something that you don't care about. So the end result isn't that surprising......

Result: NO DEAL

3rd Idea: Talbott Teas; seeking $250k for 20%

Now this is a company. Or at least in terms of sales and products. Until you actually taste the tea, you can't decide on whether you like the product or not. This company kind of got a back way into making money, and that was being one of Oprah's whatevers of the month. So from that alone they got publicity, although I never heard of them because I don't watch Oprah or care about her show. But this is a well run company. Their profit is at 50% (before they pay themselves), at the time of filming they had $500k in sales in 2011, and it appears they are only on the way up. A few sharks dropped out due to personal reasons, Daymond already is invested in a tea business and Mark doesn't eat-live-breath tea so he doesn't want to do a deal that he isn't 100% committed to.

Kevin on the other hand realizes the potential and growth but also realizes the mis-valuation of the company, but counteroffers $250k for 40%, which is almost a perfect valuation. Robert realized the mis-valuation but decided to drop out because they didn't realize how much they mis-valued their company. After some back and forth hassle to try and lower the equity, Kevin did something that he says he rarely does, and drops the equity down to 35%. That right there tells me that this company has huge potential. Kevin sold his business for BILLIONS, so when he changes his offer to increase his chances of investing in a company, you know it has to be worth something.

Anyway, with everyone else out and no other offer to consider, they end up doing the deal, which is a good deal for them. It appears they will all end up agreeing to grow the company a little more and then try to sell it to a larger company at 5-6 times the value, which could be close to a billion dollars by the time this happens.

Result: DEAL


4th Idea: M3 Girl Designs; seeking $300k for 15%

First thing that jumps out to me is that this is they type of deal these investors are looking for, because while there is a big investment, if the valuation is correct there can be even bigger returns. My initial thoughts on this company that sells bottle cap necklaces and other girl jewelry is clearly I would never buy this stuff, and I don't see other people buying this stuff, but I suppose young girls like this type of thing and because it is a cheap type of "jewelry", they have huge sales and have profited $1 million. I knew these sales would have all the sharks in on the idea.

Again, the first shark that realizes the potential is Kevin, but he also realizes the mis-valuation and counter-offers $300k for 30%. Lori decides to jump on board with Kevin and do a deal together but take the equity up to 40% and will mentor the young girl. Mark Cuban then decides to join in with an offer, but wants to team up with Lori, and to no surprise, she dumps Kevin and teams with Mark, but take the equity back down to 30%, so Mark and Lori's offer is $300k for 30%. Robert and Kevin then decide to go into a deal together for the same offer, $300k for 30%, which basically makes it a picking game for the three girls to decide who they want to work for, since all the offers are the same. If this was randomly my business, I am easily going into business with Kevin and Robert, but because this is run by this young girl and her sister and mother, it is obvious they are going to pick Mark and Lori because of the QVC connections and having a female investor.

After a quick discussion, they decide they would like to work with 3 sharks, Robert, Lori, and Mark, leaving Kevin out in the cold! But they make a huge mistake and lower the equity to 20%. Mark, Lori, and Robert all decide 20% is to low, and that they can't do it unless it is 30%. The girls finally decide that is the deal they want, but want season tickets to Mavs games from Mark Cuban. Obviously they don't know much about pro sports and that season tickets are sold out usually a year or two in advance, but Mark says anytime they want to chill with him in his suite box they can. So they agree on that and do the deal with Robert, Lori, and Mark for $300k for 30%.

I suppose this is a good deal for them, although like I said before, I don't have any interest in this product so I can't say that I think it is a good idea, but obviously the sales say so, so I guess it is just a wait and see type of game. I do like that they didn't back down with just 2 deals on the table and decided to switch it up and make it a 3 person deal. Other than the obvious mis-valuation that everyone does, another huge mistake people often make are doing a deal that is clearly not in their favor just because it is the only deal on the table.

Result: DEAL



At the end of the day, this episode didn't really make me jump out of my chair. I loved the Powerdecal update, because when that was first on the show I was very interested, but none of these products made me want to go online to look for more information on them. The surprising thing is that there were 3 deals made out of the 4 ideas. Usually it is just 1 or 2 deals that are made out of 4 ideas, with once or twice no deals being made.

Anyway, I feel like this turned from being a review of the episode to more of an episode recap, so next time I'm going to try to not describe the episode itself since I assume anyone reading this will have watched the show.