Saturday, March 10, 2012

10 Year NFL Team

Lets say you are tasked with winning every single one of the next 10 Superbowls, what 24 man roster (11 offense, 11 defense, K & P, no backups for this scenario) do you select?
RULES:
1 - Your team can be made up of any 24 people in the world. If you think Kevin Durant is the best option for TE, then so be it.
2 - Money is clearly no object.
3 - Injuries and age are a factor. Take Tom Brady if you want, if you think he can win when he is 44 years old. Or take Matthew Stafford if you think he can stay healthy for 10 straight years. There is no free agent pick up if someone gets hurt.
4 - You lose, you die.
Obviously there is no way to predict this, but the thought behind rule 4 is to take it seriously and make real decisions that don't include just your favorite team.
For this scenario I will use a 3WR, 1 TE, 1 HB offense and a 4-3 defense. I will also give a brief explanation of each pick.
OFFENSE:
QB - Aaron Rodgers: He will be 38 at the end of the 10th year, and he has had a little problem with injuries in the past, but with this, I will have an elite offensive line, so I hope to eliminate any injury chance. Other choices would be Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Sam Bradford.
HB - LeSean McCoy: The complete idea here is he has proved the most at the youngest age with no injury history. He is 3 years younger than Peterson & Chris Johnson, and 2 years younger than Ray Rice. With RBs hitting a "wall" at age 30ish, younger is better.
TE - Jermichael Finley: He is young, and very athletic, and can matchup against anyone on defense. Only other consideration was Vernon Davis.
WR - Calvin Johnson Jr.: Quite simple. I have him as the best WR in the league, and even at age 36 in 10 years, I still think he will be a top 10 WR at that point.
WR - A.J. Green: Did you see this guy play this year? Just an absolute beast that if you matched up with another #1 reciever on his team, he would be that much better.
WR - Mike Wallace: He will be 35 in 10 years, so it makes sense his greatest attribute, his speed, won't be what it is now. But even then, he would be beyond the fastest #3 WR in the league.
LT - Joe Thomas: He will be 37 at the end of the 10 years, so not an ideal choice, but he has been the best LT in the league since he arrived, and hasn't missed a single snap since day 1. You bet against him, cause I wont.
LG - Mike Iupati: He is a strong interior lineman, and will provide some youth on this O-line, being just 34 at the end of the 10 years.
C - Maurkice Pouncey: He has already established himself in this league as one of the top centers to come, and at just 22 years of age, he will be the top lineman on this team for the next 10 years.
RG - Ryan Clady: Originally a tackle, I would move him to right guard for this scenario. He has developed into one of the top tackles in the game, and with right guard being a hard position to fill, he would fit good enough, and even if he was only 80% of what he is at tackle, it would be plenty.
RT - Tyron Smith: Quite possibly the best RT in the game, and he only has 16 starts. Oh, and he is just 21 years old. He would be a brute force for the next 10 years on this line.
DEFENSE:
DE - Jason Pierre-Paul: As an Eagles fan whose team drafted Brandon Graham ahead of JPP, it frustrates me to see him be so good, but at the end of the day, for the next 10 years, I think he is the top DE in the game.
DT - B.J. Raji: This is my safe pick, in terms of, he is a great defensive tackle, but not the best. But for his age, his injury history, and his track record, I feel confident playing him for 10 years and not having to worry about not having him for a game.
DT - Haloti Ngata: This is a very tough pick, because of his age. He will be 38 at the end of 10 seasons. I'm not sure how effective he will be 10 years from now, but I went with him instead of Ndamukong Suh is because if my life depended on it, I don't think Suh plays every game for the next 10 years because of his attitude.
DE - Von Miller: He plays OLB for the Broncos, but he is the type of player who can be a OLB/DE hybrid, so I am playing him at DE, where all he has to focus on is getting to the QB.
OLB - Brian Cushing: He played OLB his first season before moving to ILB when Wade Phillips brought the 3-4 defense to the team. He only had one of the best rookie performances that year, and with age being a premium at the LB position, being only 25 helps a lot.
MLB - Patrick Willis: This is probably the easiest pick for this entire team. The only downside is he will be 37 at the end of the 10 year period, although Ray Lewis is coming back at the age of 37, and he is still one of the top LBs in the game, so no real problem with this pick.
OLB - Clay Matthews: I almost left him off this list because he is a 3-4 OLB, but just his pure athletic ability made me put him back on. In a perfect world he is blitzing every play, but even on this defense, I just couldn't leave him off.
CB - Darrelle Revis: His age would concern me a lot by the end of the 10 year period, but his work ethic and desire to be the top CB in the game eases that thought.
SS - Eric Berry: When you factor in age and ability into a pick, Berry has to be the top SS in the game.
FS - Earl Thomas: Haven't really seen him play in a game, but watching highlights shows me all I need to know.
CB - Patrick Peterson: He is young, extremely fast, and his special teams contributions gave the Cardinals a few extra wins, and that is all I would need from him.
K - Alex henery: This may look like a homer pick, but before you judge, know that he has the range to kick almost a 60 yarder, and set the rookie accuracy record.
P - Brett Kern: Not much into a punter selection here, major thing is make sure he isn't an old man at the end of the 10 year period. And with the need to win the next 10 Superbowls, hopefully punting isn't going to be something my team does a lot.
Feel free to comment on players you would have chosen over one of my current players.

Friday, March 9, 2012

Shark Tank Season 3 "Week 8"

I really hate that Barbara is back for however many more episodes. If seems like she doesn't do a lot of deals or try to negotiate that much. Lori seemed much more active in the ideas.


1st Idea: The Original Profender; $75k for 15%

Seems like a decent idea. With an offer they could remake it into something that is a little more realistic in terms of what someone would see on the basketball court. The huge thing here is that it costs $500 per each profender. That seems outragous. Like Mark says, NBA teams, and top colleges could afford that price easily, but for a local gym, small time schools, small high schools, it would be almost impossible for them to afford it, even a $200 retail version. And since it is all about making money, everyone goes out.

I am surprised Mark didn't try to do something with it. I do wish they had revealed the profit margin on each one, but they didn't, so I can only assume a $300ish profit, and I believe if Mark had decided to go in on it, with a little makeover they could have sold millions.

Outcome: NO DEAL



2nd Idea: Nardo's Natural; $75k for 12%

I'm not into personal skin care products myself, and like Kevin says there are thousands of people out there with a product like this. I don't even really know what to say about this to be honest lol.

Barbara of all people is the only one that makes an offer, although I think if they had a few more sales Robert would have been in there also. In the end they take Barbara's deal, which is a good thing because they need someone that can help and guide them past where they are now.

Outcome: DEAL



Recap: Pork Barrel BBQ

It's been so long since this episode, I honestly don't even remember what I first thought about this idea. What a horrible recap haha.



3rd Idea: Rent-A-Grandma; $150 for 20%

Just from the name alone seems like a horrible idea.

I don't know why people would hire a random lady that they don't know for a higher cost versus someone you know that can do it for half the price to babysit. I guess in theory it is an easy way to make money, outside of the initial contact you rarely have any work after that, but seems tough to generate customers with an idea like this.

Outcome: NO DEAL



4th Idea: LITTER; $80k for 51%

They want to give up over half of their company. Should at least get all of the sharks attention if nothing else.

Wow. A very accurate company valuation, much better than possibly anyone else that has ever been on the show. At first I thought this was going to be a pitch, but a couple of minutes in it appeared as though everyone wanted a piece of this. There was one view where it looked like Daymond was going to jump all over this.

With a product like this, Daymond is the best guy to go into business with. Plus, my thoughts are the first person to give you an offer is probably the person that is most interested in the product. Near the end it looked like Barbara wanted to make a better offer, but who really knows what that offer would have been, plus if she really wanted to do a deal why didn't she offer up something before Daymond.

With jewelry having such a high markup, I wouldn't be surprised to see them run with this deal and easily cross one million in sales the following year.

Outcome: DEAL



End of Episode Recap: The Profender seemed like a decent idea, but way to high of a price to sell. The skin care product is probably going to have a hard time to hit major sales. Rent-A-Grandma still seems like a stupid idea and company. The LITTER has a bad name, but I do like that leg piece the girls were wearing in the episode; as I said, I could easily see that business going far.

Friday, March 2, 2012

Shark Tank Season 3 "Week 7"

1st Idea: Kisstixx; $200k for 20%

Their company valuation isn't as crazy as I first thought, but only becuase of the potential Walgreens order. These two guys seem like great guys to have running a business. They have a product, have sold over 25k units, have ideas for where they would like to take their concept, and outside of Barbara who never invests in anything, seem to have sparked interest from other sharks (not counting Kevin who will be out unless he thinks he can make 10+ million).

Well technically Mark is the only one that offers a contract, but Daymond and Robert both said they would have made an offer, just not as good as that.

Outcome: DEAL


Update: Daisy Cakes

I vaguely remember this idea, lady makes cakes at home and ships them to anywhere across the U.S. From what I remember she did pretty good before, not great but not a pushover in terms of sales, and now it appears she is hitting it big time with over a million in sales a year. Although I still doubt I would order a cake from the other side of the U.S. and get it shipped to my house.


2nd Idea: The Smart Baker; $75k for 25%

First off if they have any sales this valuation is way more accurate than 90% of the products/ideas on this show.

So the valuation isn't as good as I thought but they have great margins on sales. I don't really like the apron idea, if you bake for a living you should know off the top of your head how many teaspoons are in a tablespoon. I do like the cooking sheets though with the side handles, that seems like a good product, just not able to sell that for a lot.

As Kevin points out, even with great margins its tough to make a lot of money with products like this, it is more of a hobby than a business.

Haha I love Robert in this part, eating a cupcake while drama happens between Daymond and Barbara. As they leave Daymond says he would have ended up licensing the products. Myself personally I love the license route and if I was in that same situation and I took Barbara's deal I would have later been mad to know Daymond wanted to license it. He probably should have said something about that.

Outcome: DEAL


3rd Idea: Heat Helper; $100k for 50%

A much lower valuation than most people, but this is probably the only guy that has come in initially seeking a straight up partner, 50/50. But this guy seems crazy haha. Good idea though.

I feel bad for the guy though, but like everyone says, it's hard to invest in someone that isn't 100% committed to their idea. But my personal opinion is, if you have a successful business, and you come out with an idea like this, and it isn't blowing up, but you are still selling some, leave it at that. He probably puts 1 hour a week into this idea and can make some money on the side. Sometimes thats all a product is.

Outcome: NO DEAL


4th Idea: TEC; $500k for 15%

Extreme valuation. I doubt he has 100k in sales.

I like the licensing idea. Easiest way to do nothing and make money. Although apparantly he has a nice clothing business that makes millions, but he doesn't want to offer any equity in that company. At first glance I figured that would blow this offer up, but it appears the guy is willing to negotiate. The best part of this idea and patent is you can prevent any other major clothing brand from running wires in clothes.

Like Daymond, I always wonder why people that are making millions in profit come on this show. This guy seems very arrogant. The only reason I think Kevin and Robert are trying to get a deal because of the money potential, while Mark and Daymond don't want to invest because of the moral issues.

Ugh this guy has major issues. Pretty sure he didn't go on the show to get a deal, just some free publicity and the ability to brag about the connections he has.

Outcome: NO DEAL



At the end of the episode, there were a lot of good negotiations, some decent ideas, but for myself I didn't see anything really attractive. Outside of the last guy who actually has a business, everyone else has an idea with small potential. Although small potential is all it takes to turn $1,000 into $1,000,000.